Issue: April 2012

Holmqvist, Göran

In this paper, four theories on the causes of civil war are reviewed. One theory, associated with Paul Collier, emphasises feasibility over factors related to grievance. A second theory, espoused by Frances Stewart, focuses on the role of horizontal inequalities. The third theory, identified with William Zartman, highlights the different roles “need, creed and greed” factors play in various phases of a conflict. And the fourth theory, associated with the World Bank /World Development Report 2011, points out “commitment” problems leading to institutional failures as a crucial factor. Each of the theories leads to quite different policy conclusions. Their strengths and weaknesses, and their claimed empirical support, are discussed. In addition, some of the mechanisms underpinning the theories are highlighted on the basis of empirical data. In particular, the central role of horizontal inequalities between social groups is discussed.

Shaw, Mark, and Walter Kemp

Rarely considered a serious challenge until recently, organized crime and related serious crime have become a critical issue in many fragile states. Experience shows that organized crime must be addressed during the course of any peace operation or political mission, since in many cases it is the biggest impediment to peace. Given weak institutions, few economic opportunities, and serious security threats, the activities of organized crime can have a disproportionate and devastating impact in fragile states, particularly when a political transition to peace or democracy is underway.

This guide is designed for people in multilateral organizations who want to analyze the nature of organized crime in a fragile state, and should be particularly useful for field staff of peacekeeping, peacebuilding, or political missions engaged in mission planning and post-conflict needs-assessment. The objective of this guide is to hopefully allow the production of what is generally called an Organized Crime Threat Assessment (OCTA). The OCTA is a tool for generating a strategic picture of organized crime that can lead to an evidence-based response, both in terms of policy and operations. The guide seeks to provide an overview of what steps can be taken to analyze and understand organized and serious crime in a particular country. It is not a guide for conducting a criminal investigation; rather, it is a way to gather together information on things that have not been focused on before and that impact the peace or political process.

Mugumo Mushi, Ferdinand

South Kivu Province of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has experienced recurrent wars for more than 15 years. This Research Report explores the way local systems of governance and networking in South Kivu have been affected by the civil war and the ways in which local communities have tried to cope with chaos and the absence of the state. Most community groups in South Kivu consider that violence and conflict were imposed on them and dissociate themselves, as communities, from violence, this being the work of some organised groups which should not be confused with the communities themselves. The fundamental causes of the wars lie in the ways in which Rwanda and Burundi, to different degrees, involved themselves with these other actors.

Piiparinen, Touko, and Ville Brummer

Today’s peace mediation involves a greater number and diversity of actors than ever before. States can no longer function as unitary actors, utilising governmental resources and official structures alone. Rather, states are embedded in global networks of regional and non-governmental actors such as local civil society actors and private diplomacy organisations, which they have to rely on in implementing mediation and negotiation processes. Therefore, the interface between official and unofficial sectors is becoming an ever more timely research object in the study of mediation.

The purpose of this report is to explore the contemporary dynamics of peace mediation with a view to three specific objectives. First, it aims to identify the distinctive characteristics of global peace mediation and the roles played by different actors, particularly governments, NGOs and regional organisations, in mediation processes. It also describes the new forms of co-operation between these actors and analyse the challenges and opportunities of the new co-operation frameworks in global peace mediation.

Second, the report analyses the field of global peace mediation from the viewpoint of small countries. In particular, it aims to provide perspectives on the following questions: What kinds of opportunities does the changing field of conflict resolution and peacebuilding offer to small countries as active mediators? What kinds of consortiums are the most suitable forms of collaboration?

Third, the report aims to reflect these questions in view of the development of Finnish mediation capacities. Thus far, the debate on mediation in Finland has centred on the national capacities and strengths by which Finland can claim or reclaim a central position in peace mediation. Particularly in the immediate aftermath of the publishing of the Country Brand Delegation report, Finnish mediation was portrayed as a national project premised on the idea of Finland as a special case or sui generis power. However, to date, relatively little attention has been paid to the fact that Finland could learn a lot from the analysis of the mediation efforts of other states and other organisations, their institutional structures for conducting mediation operations and their cooperation arrangements in global mediation networks.

As Finland is currently in the process of designing and developing its own mediation capacities, it does not need to reinvent the wheel but can utilise the lessons learned from various alternative mediation arrangements in other states and agencies. It is precisely this outward-looking viewpoint which underlies the present report. Parts I and II of the report investigate the main dynamics and actors of the surrounding global environment of peace mediation in which Finland is situated. Part III analyses the different strategies and mechanisms by which other states operate and cope in that environment. Part IV examines the future prospects for Finland as a mediator.

Molzahn, Cory, Viridiana Rios, and David A. Shirk

 In mid-January 2012, under pressure from media and watchdog groups, the Mexican government released new data on the casualties of the drug war in Mexico. These data confirmed that drug-related violence has steadily worsened since the beginning of the administration of President Felipe Calderón Hinojosa (2006-12), who has waged a vigorous effort to rid the country of drug trafficking and organized crime.

According to the Mexican government, there were over 47,500 documented “organized crime related homicides” from President Calderón’s inauguration on December 1, 2006 to September 30, 2011, though data from the fourth quarter were not available as of the release of this report.

While the levels of homicide in Mexico do not nearly approach some other Latin American countries, the toll of drug related violence has been unacceptably high. At the start of the Calderón administration, there was one drug related homicide every four hours; by 2011, the worst year on record, there was one every 30 minutes. Now, roughly half of all homicides in Mexico are attributable to drug violence.

Still, the government’s data confirmed prior assessments by the Trans-Border Institute (TBI) that the trajectory of violence began to shift in 2011, with a lower rate of increase than in previous years and significant declines in the number of homicides in certain key cities (Ciudad Juárez, Culiacán, and Chihuahua). At the same time, as reported by TBI throughout the year, it is clear that violence has begun to spread to new areas of the country, including the wealthy industrial metropolis of Monterrey and the vital port city of Veracruz.

In this report, the authors provide detailed analysis of the available empirical measures and patterns of drug related homicide, evaluate the underlying contributing factors, and the possible policy options to reduce the growing toll of the drug war in Mexico. In the process, the authors provide a comprehensive overview of the key trends and events in 2011 with respect to the activities of Mexico’s major criminal organizations.

This research project focuses on issues of social difference, such as ethnicity, religion, generational difference and migration, and the challenges arising from these. It considers local perspectives on these challenges; how people seek to address them; and what they consider needs to be done to resolve them. It involved the collaboration of international and Russian experts, including researchers from the North Caucasus, and institutional partnership between the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences and Saferworld. The work focused on five republics in the North Caucasus: Chechnya, Ingushetia, North Ossetia, Dagestan, and Kabardino-Balkaria.

Our research shows that social and political conditions for people on the ground – particularly for youth, who feel excluded from both economic and political life – do little to defend society against the influence of ideological extremism. More engagement with the problems affecting young people, and improved governance, including in the security and justice sectors, can help build resilience to violence.

The research forms part of the EU-funded ‘People’s Peacemaking Perspectives’ project, a joint initiative implemented by Conciliation Resources and Saferworld and financed under the European Commission's Instrument for Stability. The project provides European Union institutions with analysis and recommendations based on the opinions and experiences of local people in a range of countries and regions affected by fragility and violent conflict.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) works with a number of developing member countries facing fragile and conflict-affected situations—circumstances that complicate economic development, and might include domestic or international conflict, ethnic tensions, vulnerability to natural disasters, or a confluence of these factors.

ADB piloted the peacebuilding tool in Nepal as a conflict-sensitive approach, a key to effective and safe implementation of projects in the country’s post-conflict context. The peacebuilding tool is an analytical tool for assisting project team leaders and social experts in understanding the local context, and in identifying potential risks to implementation of development projects that are linked to social conflicts, as well as in formulating mitigation measures for addressing these risks.

This publication highlights the experiences and lessons learned in applying the PBT in Nepal in the hope that these will be useful in replicating the success achieved under the PBT pilot initiative, as well as in conducting assessments of fragile and post-conflict situations generally. More broadly, it is hoped that disseminating these experiences and lessons will help ADB and its development partners understand the dynamics of fragile and post-conflict situations in developing member countries, and to adjust implementation of programs, projects, and other development interventions accordingly.

Santiago Oreta, Jennifer, and Anne Kathline Tolosa

“Pagpati'ut: Mediating Violence in Sulu” looks at six communities in the Province of Sulu, South of the Philippines, to understand better the triggers of violence in this region and highlight mechanisms and social institutions that have worked to address those and should be supported in doing so.

The goal of the current research is to discover current community practices in mediating violence, and effective policies (customary and legislated) that support a positive environment for peace building. Its general and overarching intention is to document ‘what works’ given the specific context of Sulu, with the intention of sharing these ‘peace technologies’ to other communities in similar circumstance.

While a number of studies have already been done as regards peace and conflict dynamics in the Philippines, literature specific to the Sulu archipelago remains scarce.

This research does not claim to be a trail-blazing work; instead, it offers to explore the dynamic play of history, institutions, interpretations, and governance in Sulu. In doing so, it attempts to bring to fore positive interventions initiated by community leaders and members, with the end-view of institutionalizing if not strengthening such efforts. It is hoped that such a study may in fact encourage other similar and more comprehensive studies.

The study also offers to determine factors for community resilience that can be replicated in similar challenging environments.

Boukhars, Anouar

The Western Sahara, a former Spanish territory annexed by Morocco despite Algerian objections, is a critical region that could quickly become part of the criminal and terrorist networks threatening North Africa and the Sahel. The undergoverned areas abutting the territory are becoming major hubs for drug trafficking, contraband smuggling, and weapons circulation. And Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is extending its reach in the region. The potential for destabilization is real.

AQIM and its offshoots in the Sahel are already working to expand their partnership with smugglers from massive refugee camps in Tindouf, Algeria, and to enlist recruits among the disenchanted youth there. If AQIM strengthened its alliance of convenience with the Polisario, the movement that has long fought for Western Sahara’s independence, a formidable terrorist organization could emerge.

Nearby Moroccan-controlled Western Sahara is plagued by widespread socioeconomic protests and ethnic strife. A deep enmity has developed between various groups in the territory, some of which have ethnic and cultural ties to inhabitants of the Tindouf camps. A growing number of Western Saharans find themselves increasingly isolated and frustrated—a precarious development. Just over a year ago, Laayoune, Western Sahara’s biggest city, was the site of violent rioting. Ethnic cleavages and cultural animosity have become dangerously pronounced, threatening to further fuel radicalism, violence, and confrontations.

Resolving the Western Sahara conflict would help untangle the main existing deadlocks in North Africa and the Sahel: impediments toward regional reconciliation and coordination in the fight against violent extremism and organized criminal activity. Based on the author’s multiple trips to the Moroccan Western Sahara and dozens of interviews, this paper examines the security risks of the persistence of the conflict by analyzing the destabilizing forces that heighten local tensions and regional instability.

Disley, Emma, Kristin Weed, Anais Reding, et al

This report, prepared for the Office for Security and Counter-Terrorism [OSCT] in the UK Home Office, presents the findings of a Rapid Evidence Assessment [REA] into individual disengagement from Al Qa'ida-influenced terrorist groups. The project was commissioned to inform policy development in relation to the 'Prevent' strand of the Government's counter-terrorism strategy. The REA sought to answer two questions: 'What are the psychological, social and physical factors associated with leaving terrorist groups?' and 'What interventions have been employed to encourage individuals to leave terrorist groups, and is there any evidence as to their effectiveness?' Because there is very little research on leaving such terrorist groups, the OSCT also commissioned a second REA of the factors involved in leaving other groups — street gangs, religious cults, right-wing extremist groups and organised crime groups — in the hope of identifying potentially transferable lessons.

Deepening militarisation and the lack of accountable governance in Sri Lanka’s Northern Province are preventing a return to normal life and threaten future violence. Scene of the most bitter fighting in the civil war, the Tamil-majority north remains under de facto military occupation, with all important policies set by Sinhala officials in Colombo. The slow but undeniable movement of Sinhala settlers into the fringes of the north and other forms of government-supported “Sinhalisation” are reigniting a sense of grievance and weakening chances for a real settlement with Tamil and other minority parties to devolve power. The international community, especially those governments and aid agencies supporting the reconstruction of the area, should demand a fundamental change of course and should structure their assistance so as to encourage the demilitarisation and democratisation of the former war zone and full respect for minority rights.

This report examines how effective military control over the civil administration as well as control and surveillance of civil society, along with government-supported Sinhalisation, has undermined many of the expected benefits from an end to the war. Enforced disappearances, violent crackdowns on protestors in various towns and extrajudicial punishments have shown the sharper edge of military policing and revealed the deep mistrust on both sides of the civil-military and Tamil-Sinhala divides.

This report describes how the Burmese army has attacked Kachin villages, razed homes, pillaged properties, and forced the displacement of tens of thousands of people. Soldiers have threatened and tortured civilians during interrogations and raped women. The army has also used antipersonnel mines and conscripted forced laborers, including children as young as 14, on the front lines.

This report is largely based on 112 interviews conducted by Human Rights Watch from July 2011 to February 2012, primarily in the conflict zones of Kachin State and in China’s Yunnan Province. In June, July, and November 2011 Human Rights Watch visited nine camps for internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Kachin State and six unrecognized camps for Burmese refugees in border towns and remote jungle areas of Yunnan.